Spring training games begin this week. 2026 Topps Series 1 hit shelves seven days ago. And 72 of MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospects are in big-league camp right now, including 23 of the top 25.
That combination creates the best buying window of the year for baseball card collectors. Historical data tells the story: spring training breakout performances have driven card prices up 100% to nearly 600% for the right prospects. Curtis Mead's cards jumped from $14 to $100. Chase Burns' base autos tripled. Brett Baty's doubled.
The window closes fast. Once a prospect rakes in Grapefruit League games or earns an Opening Day roster spot, the market reprices within days. Here are the 10 spring training cards worth buying right now, organized by risk level and upside.
Why Spring Training Moves the Card Market
Spring training is not just exhibition baseball. For the card market, it is the annual proving ground where prospects either validate the hype or expose the cracks. Collectors who pay attention during February and March consistently find better entry points than those who wait for the regular season.
| Player | Pre-Spring Price | Post-Spring Price | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Mead | $14.52 | ~$100 | +589% |
| Chase Burns (base auto) | $40-60 | $120-150 | +150% |
| Brett Baty | $40 | $80-100 | +125% |
| Michael Busch | $25 | $50+ | +100% |
The pattern repeats every year. A strong couple of weeks in March lights a fire under a player's market before Opening Day even hits. Numbered parallels and refractors see even larger spikes than base cards. The combination of Top 100 prospect list releases plus spring training performances creates a perfect storm for price movement.
Tier 1: Must-Own Rookies (2026 Topps RCs Just Released)
These players already have MLB experience and their flagship 2026 Topps Series 1 rookie cards dropped on February 11. Base cards are still at first-week prices. Buy before the regular season starts and attention (and demand) ramps up.
Roman Anthony
Boston Red Sox, OFAnthony finished 3rd in the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year voting after slashing .292/.396/.463 with a 140 OPS+ in 71 games. He is the undisputed headliner of the 2026 rookie class. His 2026 Topps #189 is the first card in history to carry both the RC logo and Rookie Cup designation, an extremely rare honor. SI reports that Anthony and Shohei Ohtani are dominating early sales from Series 1.
Nick Kurtz
Oakland Athletics, 1BKurtz unanimously won the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year after posting a 1.002 OPS with 36 home runs. He went 6-for-6 with four homers in a single game against Houston, becoming the first rookie and first Athletics player to accomplish that feat. His 2026 Topps base card is around $2 right now. That is absurd value for a unanimous ROY.
Jac Caglianone
Kansas City Royals, 1B/PCaglianone is the former Florida two-way star who dominated as both a pitcher and hitter in college. His dual-threat background creates a unique collector narrative (the Ohtani effect is real). He has two card numbers in 2026 Topps Series 1: #138 and #236, plus the exclusive 1952 Topps design variation that Topps confirmed will never be reprinted.
Tier 2: Opening Day Locks (100% Roster Certainty)
MLB Pipeline gives these two prospects a 100% chance of making Opening Day rosters. They are not competing for spots. They own them. The market has not fully priced in that certainty yet.
JJ Wetherholt
St. Louis Cardinals, 2BWetherholt is the best pure hitting prospect headed to an Opening Day roster. He hit .306/.421/.510 across Double-A and Triple-A in 2025 as the Cardinals' Minor League Player of the Year. He is learning from Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith in camp. And in his first spring training at-bat? He crushed a three-run homer. Pipeline ranks him #5 overall with 100% Opening Day certainty.
Nolan McLean
New York Mets, RHPMcLean is Pipeline's #6 prospect and the best pitching prospect in baseball on a big-market team. He became the first pitcher in Mets franchise history to win his first three career starts. Nicknamed "Cowboy Ohtani" for his two-way ability in the minors, he enters 2026 as the Mets' rotation cornerstone. Pitchers are historically undervalued in the card market, which means there is more room to grow.
Tier 3: Pre-Debut Window (Bowman 1st Cards, Mid-Season Call-Ups Expected)
These prospects do not have Topps rookie cards yet because they have not debuted in the majors. Their Bowman 1st Chrome cards are the play. Historically, Bowman 1st prices spike hardest around the debut announcement. Spring training is your last chance to buy before the hype peaks.
Konnor Griffin
Pittsburgh Pirates, SS/OFThe consensus #1 overall prospect across every major ranking. Griffin is the first drafted teenager to post a 20-homer, 40-steal minor league season and was named MLB Pipeline's 2025 Hitting Prospect of the Year. FanGraphs gives him 70/80 overall future value with elite tools across the board. Pipeline gives him a 50% shot at the Opening Day roster at just 19 years old. His Bowman Chrome Auto is up 43.5% in the last 30 days alone.
Kevin McGonigle
Detroit Tigers, SSThe #2 prospect on both MLB Pipeline and ESPN. Evaluators call McGonigle the best pure hitter at the minor league level. He posted a .919 OPS at Double-A at just 20 years old. This is his first exposure to big-league camp as a non-roster invitee alongside fellow Tigers prospect Max Clark. A mid-season debut is the consensus expectation.
Samuel Basallo
Baltimore Orioles, CThe Orioles handed Basallo an eight-year, $67 million extension before he had established himself as a regular. That kind of commitment tells you everything about their belief in his talent. Power-hitting catchers are the rarest and most valuable archetype in the card market. His max exit velocity of 115.9 mph is elite. His 2026 Topps RC is freshly available at accessible price points.
Jacob Misiorowski
Milwaukee Brewers, RHPMisiorowski outdueled Paul Skenes in a head-to-head start in 2025. That is a sentence that sells itself to collectors. The Brewers have an elite track record of developing pitching, and Misiorowski has frontline starter stuff. His 2026 Topps RC (#10) is already generating significant secondary market activity. A FoilFractor 1/1 Auto was pulled on Series 1 release day.
Tier 4: Sleeper Picks (Buy Low, High Reward Potential)
These are the contrarian plays. Card prices are depressed because of injuries, small sample struggles, or lack of mainstream attention. Spring training is the reset button. A strong camp changes everything.
Andrew Painter
Philadelphia Phillies, RHPPainter was a top-10 prospect before Tommy John surgery derailed him. His Bowman 1st autos crashed during the recovery period, creating a textbook buy-low window. The Phillies just announced he made a mechanical adjustment over the winter to restore his pre-surgery arm slot. Bryce Harper publicly said the Phillies "need" Painter in 2026. He is competing for the #5 starter job this spring. If his stuff looks sharp in camp, the price correction will be swift because his pre-injury card supply is already sitting in the market at depressed levels.
Travis Bazzana
Cleveland Guardians, 2BThe 2024 first overall pick (and first Australian ever drafted #1) had an injury-shortened 2025 but still posted a .389 OBP in 84 games. That on-base skill is real. Manager Stephen Vogt says he will get an extended look in camp, and Pipeline gives him a 30% shot at the Opening Day roster. First overall picks always carry collector cachet. His Bowman 1st cards may be suppressed from the injury narrative, creating a buying opportunity.
One to avoid: Sebastian Walcott (Rangers, SS, #7 Pipeline) reportedly needs UCL surgery and may miss most of 2026. His Bowman 1st autos are still priced at $160+. Wait for clarity on the surgery timeline before buying.
Your Spring Training Buying Strategy
Not every prospect card is a buy at every price. Here is a framework for matching your budget to the right opportunity.
| Budget | Strategy | Target Cards |
|---|---|---|
| Under $15 | Stack base rookie cards of proven players | Kurtz RC (~$2), Misiorowski RC ($2-6), Basallo RC ($2-8), Caglianone RC ($3-10) |
| $15-50 | Buy player lots with a mix of base + parallels | Anthony RC lot, Wetherholt prospect lot, Painter buy-low autos |
| $50-150 | Target Bowman 1st Chrome autos of pre-debut prospects | Wetherholt auto ($80-100), McGonigle auto ($75-100) |
| $150+ | Premium prospect autos with the highest ceiling | Griffin Chrome Auto (~$200), Anthony Bowman 1st Auto ($200+) |
Key Dates for Card Collectors
Now Through February 20
Best buying window. 2026 Topps Series 1 just released and prices are still at first-week levels. Spring training games have not started yet, so no performance data has moved the market.
February 20 - March 18
Spring training games begin. Watch for breakout performances, especially from the Tier 2 and Tier 3 prospects fighting for roster spots. Prices start moving on early camp standouts.
March 19-22: Spring Breakout Showcase
The headline event for prospects. Last year, 92 participants appeared in the big leagues during the regular season. This is a major price catalyst, especially for pre-debut prospects.
Late March: Roster Cuts
Teams finalize Opening Day rosters. Prospects who make it see immediate price spikes. Those sent down may dip, creating secondary buy-low windows for patient collectors.
Building Spring Training Lots on PlayerLots
The smartest way to get exposure to this rookie class is through player lots. Instead of paying a premium for one card, a 3-5 card lot gives you a base RC, a parallel, and maybe an insert of the same player for one fixed price.
Fixed Pricing
$10 to $100 lots with no auctions and no negotiation. You see the price, you claim it.
See Every Card
Up to 5 photos per lot. No mystery boxes, no blind buys. You know exactly what you are getting.
Player-Focused
Every lot features 3-5 cards of the same player. Perfect for building prospect PCs before the breakout.
Tracked Shipping
PWE or BMWT with distance-based pricing. Your cards arrive protected.
Sellers: if you pulled 2026 Topps Series 1 rookies this past week, now is the time to list player lots while demand is high. Bundle a base RC with a parallel and an insert for a $15-25 lot that moves fast.
Opening Day Roster Probability Cheat Sheet
Here is where each prospect stands according to MLB Pipeline's Opening Day roster projections:
| Prospect | Team | Pipeline Rank | Opening Day Odds | Key Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony | Red Sox | Top 10 | Already on roster | 2026 Topps #189 RC |
| JJ Wetherholt | Cardinals | #5 | 100% | Bowman Chrome 1st Auto |
| Nolan McLean | Mets | #6 | 100% | Bowman Draft 1st Auto |
| Konnor Griffin | Pirates | #1 | 50% | Bowman Chrome Auto |
| Travis Bazzana | Guardians | #20 | 30% | Bowman Draft 1st Chrome |
| Kevin McGonigle | Tigers | #2 | Mid-season debut | Bowman 1st Chrome Auto |
| Samuel Basallo | Orioles | #8 | TBD (spring dependent) | 2026 Topps #104 RC |
The Bottom Line
This is the best buying window of the year. 2026 Topps Series 1 is one week old, spring training starts in two days, and 72 of the top 100 prospects are in big-league camp. The math is straightforward: buy now at first-week prices, hold through March, and let spring training performances do the work.
Focus on base rookie cards and Bowman 1st Chromes of the prospects profiled here. Build player lots to diversify your exposure. And set your alerts for the Spring Breakout Showcase on March 19-22, because that event will move prices.
The spring training price spike is real. The data proves it. The only question is which prospects you want exposure to when it happens.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do baseball card prices go up during spring training?
Yes. Historical data shows spring training breakout performances drive card prices up 100% to nearly 600% for the right prospects. Curtis Mead's cards jumped from $14 to $100 after a strong spring. Chase Burns' base autos tripled. The combination of Top 100 prospect list releases plus spring training performances creates a consistent price spike pattern every year.
Which 2026 rookie cards should I buy before spring training?
Focus on Roman Anthony (2026 Topps #189, $5-15 raw), Nick Kurtz (2026 Topps #97, around $2), and Jac Caglianone (2026 Topps #138, $3-10). These players already have MLB experience and their flagship rookie cards just released on February 11. Buy base cards now before spring training performances drive prices up.
Who is the #1 MLB prospect for 2026?
Konnor Griffin of the Pittsburgh Pirates is the consensus #1 overall prospect across MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball America, and ESPN. The 19-year-old shortstop became the first drafted teenager to post a 20-homer, 40-steal minor league season. His Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto is up 43.5% in the last 30 days.
What is the Spring Breakout Showcase?
The Spring Breakout Showcase is a dedicated prospect event running March 19-22 in 2026. It features top prospects in game action against big-league competition. Last year, 92 Spring Breakout participants appeared in the major leagues during the regular season, making it a major catalyst for card price movement.
Are player lots a good way to invest in prospect cards?
Player lots offer diversified exposure at lower risk than buying a single premium card. A 3-5 card lot with a base RC, a parallel, and an insert of the same player costs less than one graded card and gives you multiple cards that all appreciate if the player breaks out. On PlayerLots, lots are priced from $10-$100 with transparent photos of every card included.
Which prospect cards are the best buy-low opportunities right now?
Andrew Painter (Phillies, RHP) and Travis Bazzana (Guardians, 2B) are the top buy-low plays. Painter's Bowman 1st autos dropped to $30-80 during his Tommy John recovery but he has made a mechanical adjustment and is competing for a rotation spot. Bazzana is the 2024 #1 overall pick with suppressed prices from an injury-shortened 2025.